Module 1

Module 1. Introduction to Impact-based Forecasting (IBF)

Welcome to Introduction to Impact-based forecasting ("IBF")!

In this module, we will explore the definition and key functions of IBF. 

IBF is an approach whereby hazard, exposure and vulnerability data are used in overlay to identify potential risk hotspots, quantify potential exposure and support data-driven decision-making. IBF analysis supports understanding how forecasted risk may impact people, means of livelihood and infrastructure so that ultimately early action can take place to reduce loss and damage from natural hazards. To put in simple terms, IBF allows us to move beyond the traditional forecasting approach of ‘what the weather and climate will be’ to ‘what the weather and climate will do.’

IBF allows for flexible analysis in temporal-terms and resolution depending on the type of data used. The possibility of IBF serving to fuel decision-making is numerous. For example by using nowcasting and weather forecasting datasets, stakeholders can make operational decisions, such as adjusting the days for outdoor activities for construction works whereas by using longer term climate projections datasets, stakeholders can make longer-term strategic investment decisions, such as the type of infrastructure needed to reduce the damage from, say the likely heatwave projected to increase in the next decades.

Join us as we delve into the world of IBF and what can be done through this useful analysis.

Please download the supplementary material for more information on theoretical concepts and applications of IBF as well as the hands-on material for following the demo to be covered in this module. 

Supplementary material:

Module 1 material download link