Central Asia | Resilience Portal

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Climate Change and Environmental Stressors in Central Asia

Basic Description

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Accelerating Climate Stress

Central Asia is warming faster than the global average.

Glacier retreat is rapid, triggering both floods and long-term water scarcity.

Cascading Effects Across Systems

Climate impacts are not isolated: water, food, and energy systems are interdependent.

Transboundary impacts are becoming more frequent and intense.

Expanding Environmental Degradation

Desertification, land degradation, and dust storms are worsening.

Rural livelihoods and ecosystems are increasingly at risk.

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The Central Asian region will experience a consistent increase in average annual temperature across all climate scenarios, with warming projected to intensify overtime, highlighting the region's growing climate stress and the need for adaptive strategies.

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From Crisis to Capacity

Recurrent disasters demand long-term resilience strategies, not just emergency responses

Recurrent disasters

Emergency Responses

Long-term
resilience strategies

Risk-Informed Pathways

Effective adaptation relies on data-driven planning and localized risk assessments

Long-term
resilience strategies

Localized Risk
Assessments

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Technology as Enabler in Central Asia

AI in Agriculture

Kazakhstan

Satellite data and ML used for crop monitoring and yield estimation

FAO & NASA Harvest, 2022

Climate Risk Analytics for Dams

Tajikistan

Remote sensing and modeling used to assess climate risks at Rogun Dam

FutureWater & World Bank, 2021

Early Warning Systems

Kyrgyzstan

Real-time flood alerts using glacial lake and rainfall monitoring

UNDP, 2025

Scenario Modeling for Climate Planning

Central Asia

CMIP6 projections used in ESCAP's DSS for regional climate planning

ESCAP

Glacial Lake Monitoring (Drones)

Kyrgyzstan

Drones for remote monitoring of GLOF-prone lakes

UNDP, 2023

Remote Sensing for Land Degradation

Central Asia

Satellite mapping of desertification hotspots

UNCCD, 2023

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"Enhancing knowledge and capacity to build resilience to slow-onset disasters in Central Asia"

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Project Main Goal

Strengthening the capabilities of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to address the complex and cascading impacts of slow-onset disaster risks on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Target 1

Comprehensive national risk assessment & impact-based forecasting of slow-onset disasters (social, economic, gender indicators)

Target 2

Expert dialogue on solutions, policy actions, enabling technologies, approaches to identity knowledge gaps and capacity development

Target 3

Share maps, data, Findings and Scientific analysis on ESCAP RRP (EN & RUS) with actionable information for coherent strategy on slow-onset disasters

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Funded by Russian Federation

Our Partner Organizations

EMERCOM

ROSHYDROMET

NEACC

IGCE

CESDRR

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Slow-Onset Glacial Hazards in Central Asia

North and Central Asia, like many regions in the Asia-Pacific, is facing intensified floods, droughts, and heatwaves due to climate change. These disasters pose risks to populations, economies and biodiversity.

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Local to Global Linkages

How local glacial hazards ripple across borders and sectors:

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)

High-mountain Disasters

Cascading Impacts

Hydrological Impacts & Disaster Risks

Energy and Agriculture Systems

Socioeconomic Tensions

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Key Sectoral Findings for Drought

POPULATION

Exposure remains very high across most provinces under all scenarios, particularly in Abay, Akmola, and Almaty Region. Under SSP5–8.5, short-term exposure drops in some areas but rises again for longer return periods, with a growing share of the population facing moderate drought severity.

AGRICULTURE

Wheat and Barley production in Akmola, Abay, and Almaty Region faces consistently high drought exposure. Under SSP5–8.5, droughts become less frequent but more intense, and severity shifts from mild to predominantly moderate. In Akmola, Wheat exposure exceeds 98% under 25-year droughts.

ENERGY

Kazakhstan's energy sector faces rising risk under SSP5–8.5, with two-thirds of hydropower capacity exposed to high-severity droughts by 25-year return periods. A small number of large plants — mainly in Abay and Almaty Region — drive most of the sector's vulnerability, increasing the threat of grid-wide drought shocks.

POPULATION

Population exposure to drought increases sharply under SSP5–8.5 — rising from just 8% under 5-year droughts to nearly 80% under 25-year droughts. Compared to SSP1–2.6, exposure also shifts more toward moderate drought, especially in Osh, Jalal-Abad, and Chüy.

AGRICULTURE

Under SSP5–8.5, Wheat exposure in Chüy rises from 16% to 100% for 5-year droughts. Severity shifts from mild to predominantly moderate drought at longer return periods. Barley shows a similar trend but with slightly lower intensity. SSP1–2.6 reflects lower exposure overall.

ENERGY

Under SSP5–8.5, nearly 60% of plants face heightened drought stress, yet they contribute only 16% of national capacity. Most capacity remains in Chüy and Jalal-Abad, where exposure is milder under SSP1–2.6 but intensifies gradually under high emissions.

POPULATION

Tajikistan faces very high drought exposure across scenarios. Under SSP5–8.5, exposure in regions like Sughd drops from 98% to 9% for 5-year droughts, but rises again to nearly 98% at 25-year events. Khatlon, Sughd, and DRS remain persistently exposed, with severity shifting toward moderate drought at longer return periods.

AGRICULTURE

Nearly all Wheat and Barley production areas face drought exposure above 95% under SSP5–8.5. Severe drought stress, absent today, begins to emerge — covering up to a third of Wheat production by 25-year events. Khatlon and Sughd account for much of this growing severity.

ENERGY

Over 80% of hydropower plants and capacity remain in mild to moderate drought zones under SSP5–8.5, even for 25-year events. Very little capacity shifts into high-severity categories, but chronic moderate stress in Sughd and Khatlon increases the need for robust reservoir and watershed planning.

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Glacial Hazard Chain Reactions

Tuyuksu Glacier near Almaty is rapidly retreating due to warming and reduced snow

Manshuk Mametova Lake and similar glacial lakes pose a GLOF and mudflow threat to Almaty

Permafrost degradation in the Zailiyskiy Alatau mountains increases slope instability and flood risks

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Scenario-based Adaptation Planning

How impact scenarios guide policy and planning

Trend Analysis

Scenario
Development

Implementation &
Monitoring

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#5 STEPS TO EMBARK ON ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE

Access to risk information: past and future, scientific projections and trends, weather and climate data, disaster loss database

Synergies

1. Hazard / Risk

Risk Analytics

2. Impact

Targeting at risk communities and economic assets; Systemic, cascading, compounding risks/impacts

EWS, DRR Strategies, National Adaptation Plans; Nature-based Solutions, Development Plans; National and Sub-national, Sectoral

Risk Informed Planning

3. Policy Response

Risk Financing

4. Investments

Across scales (pre-emptive, anticipatory, post) Sustainable, Predictable, Scalable Integrated into Planning Instruments

Whole of society – all ages, different sectors/specializations – National Disaster Management Organizations

Risk Governance

5. Adaptation and resilience

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Pathway for Adaptation and Resilience

Glaciated Mountainous Context

Glaciers
Assessment – its seasonal, sub-seasonal and long-term patterns, spatial variations and scenarios at sub-national/national and regional level.
Associated weather and climate systems
Seasonal outlooks of temperature, precipitation and snow cover – Climate Forum, Impact forecasting and scenarios.
Water, Food and Energy systems
Glacier and snow melt are key components of water flow rivers that contribute to food and energy security.
Environment / Ecosystems
Preserve and manage ecosystems and their biodiversity, land surface changes and human impact.

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Kazakhstan (population)

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Kazakhstan (agriculture)

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Kazakhstan (energy)

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Kyrgyzstan (population)

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Kyrgyzstan (agriculture)

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Kyrgyzstan (energy)

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Tajikistan (population)

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Tajikistan (agriculture)

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Tajikistan (energy)

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Find out more for countries in the Central Asia

Climate Change and Environmental Stressors in Central Asia

Accelerating Climate Stress

Cascading Effects Across Systems

Expanding Environmental Degradation

The Central Asian region will experience a consistent increase in average annual temperature across all climate scenarios, with warming projected to intensify overtime, highlighting the region's growing climate stress and the need for adaptive strategies.

From Crisis to Capacity

Risk-Informed Pathways

Technology as Enabler in Central Asia

AI in Agriculture

Climate Risk Analytics for Dams

Early Warning Systems

Scenario Modeling for Climate Planning

Glacial Lake Monitoring (Drones)

Remote Sensing for Land Degradation

Project Main Goal

Target 1

Target 2

Target 3

Our Partner Organizations

Slow-Onset Glacial Hazards in Central Asia

North and Central Asia, like many regions in the Asia-Pacific, is facing intensified floods, droughts, and heatwaves due to climate change. These disasters pose risks to populations, economies and biodiversity.

Local to Global Linkages

Permafrost

Lake Drainage and Ice Sheet Fractures

Englacial Conduit Floods

Climate Change Impacts

Slope Failures, Glacier Detachments, and Outburst Floods

Key Sectoral Findings for Drought

Glacial Hazard Chain Reactions

Tuyuksu Glacier near Almaty is rapidly retreating due to warming and reduced snow Manshuk Mametova Lake and similar glacial lakes pose a GLOF and mudflow threat to Almaty Permafrost degradation in the Zailiyskiy Alatau mountains increases slope instability and flood risks

Scenario-based Adaptation Planning

#5 STEPS TO EMBARK ON ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE

Pathway for Adaptation and Resilience

Find out more for countries in the Central Asia

Tuyuksu Glacier near Almaty is rapidly retreating due to warming and reduced snow

Manshuk Mametova Lake and similar glacial lakes pose a GLOF and mudflow threat to Almaty

Permafrost degradation in the Zailiyskiy Alatau mountains increases slope instability and flood risks