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Accelerating Climate Stress
Cascading Effects Across Systems
Expanding Environmental Degradation
Regional Heat Map - 1
Regional Heat Map - 2
Regional Heat Map - 3
Regional Heat Map - 4
Cascading Risks
From Crisis to Capacity
Risk Informed Pathways
Technology as Enabler in Central Asia
Innovation Landscape
Bridging the Adaptation Gap in Central Asia
Our Main Goal
Focus on Slow-Onset Glacial Hazards in Central Asia
How a Trans–Regional Approach Builds on Seasonal Climate Outlooks Across North Eurasia, South Asia and the Third Pole
Mapping Glacial Risk & Glacial Hotspots
Cascading Impacts
Local to Global Linkages
Cascading Hazard Chain Reactions

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  2. Third Pole
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Climate Change and Environmental Stressors in Central Asia

Basic Description

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Accelerating Climate Stress

Central Asia is warming faster than the global average

Glacier retreat is rapid, triggering both floods and long-term water scarcity

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Climate Stress Icon 2
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Cascading Effects Icon 1
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Cascading Effects Across Systems

Climate impacts are not isolated: water, food, and energy systems are interdependent

Transboundary impacts are becoming more frequent and intense

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Expanding Environmental Degradation

Desertification, land degradation, and dust storms are worsening

Rural livelihoods and ecosystems are increasingly at risk

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Cascading Risks
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From Crisis to Capacity

Recurrent disasters demand long-term resilience strategies, not just emergency responses

Recurrent disasters

Recurrent disasters
Emergency Responses

Long-term resilience strategies

Long-term
resilience strategies

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Risk Informed Pathways

Effective adaptation relies on data-driven planning and localized risk assessments

Long-term resilience strategies

Long-term
resilience strategies

Localized Risk Assessments

Localized Risk
Assessments

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Technology as Enabler in Central Asia
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AI & Machine Learning in Agriculture
Kazakhstan
Used for yield forecasting and drought monitoring
FAO, 2023
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Risk Analytics for Hydropower
Tajikistan
Risk-based dam management using remote sensi-historical hydrological data
World Bank, 2021
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Early Warning Systems
Kyrgyzstan
Regional flood alert system using rainfall thresholds and glacial lake monitoring
UNDRR, 2022
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Scenario Modeling for Regional Climate Planning
CMIP6 projections integrated in ESCAP's DSS tool for temperature + precipitation changes
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Innovation Landscape

Climate Resilience Tools in Central Asia

Satellite Icon
Satalite-Based Crop Monitoring
Tracks drought stress and vegetation health
Source FAD & Copernicus, 2022
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Glacial Lake Monitoring Drones
Used in Kyrgyzstan for hard-to-reach GLOF-prone zones
Source: UNDP Kyrgyzstan, 2023
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Mobile Climate Apps for Farmers
Piloted in Tajikistan for seasonal forecasts and planting
Source: World Bank ClimateSmart Agriculture Report, 2022
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Remote Sensing for Land Degradation
Regional satellite-driven mapping of desertification hotspots
Source: UNCCD, 2023
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Decision Support Platforms (DSS)
ESCAP's integrated platform with CMIP6, vulnerability overlays
Source: ESCAP, 2023
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Bridging the Adaptation Gap in Central Asia
Irrigation Icon
Kazakhstan
Smart Irrigation for Water Efficiency
Uses remote sensors and forecast data to adjust irrigation timing and flow
Helps conserve water in drought-prone zones
Source: FAO Water Scarcity Initiative, 2022
Alert Icon
Kyrgyzstan
GLOF Early Warning and Community Alerts
GLOF systems using lake sensors + text alert chains
Reduces risk for ~ 10,000 people in high mountain areas
Source: UNDP/GEF GLOF II Project, 2021
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Tajikistan
Solar-Powered Cold Storage for Farmers
Keeps produce fresh in extreme heat and prevents spoilage
Supports smallholders vulnerable to heatwave-linked post-harvest loss
Source: UNDP Tajikistan, 2028
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Our Main Goal

To strengthen the capacity of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan to mitigate the complex and cascading impacts of slow-onset disaster risks on achievement of the SDGs

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Target 1
Comprehensive national risk assessment & impact-based forecasting of slow-onset disasters (social, economic, gender indicators)
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Target 2
Expert dialogue on solutions, policy actions, enabling technologies, approaches to identity knowledge gaps and capacity development
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Target 3
Share maps, data, Findings and Scientific analysis on ESCAP RRP (EN & RUS) with actionable information for coherent strategy on slow-onset disasters
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Focus on Slow-Onset Glacial Hazards in Central Asia
Flooded valley
Glacier and lake
Drought cracked earth
Mountain valley

North and Central Asia, like many regions in the Asia-Pacific, is facing intensified floods, droughts, and heatwaves due to climate change. These disasters pose risks to populations, economies and biodiversity.

The impact on glaciers is especially critical for water security in the region.

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Cascading Impacts

Glacial melt impacts cascade downstream, affecting:

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Water supply reliability for communities and ecosystems
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Hydroelectric power generation and infrastructure planning
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Agricultural productivity and irrigation systems
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Local to Global Linkages

How local glacial hazards ripple across borders and sectors:

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)

High-mountain Disasters

High-mountain Disasters


Cascading Impacts

Transboundary Water Governance

Transboundary Water Governance

Energy and Agriculture Systems

Energy and Agriculture Systems

Downstream Population Safety and Displacement

Downstream Population Safety and Displacement

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